Bruto kapitalski tokovi kot boljše merilo za razlago kapitalskih tokov in alokacije kapitala v EU: ugotovitve za obdobje 1995–2018
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32015/JIBM.2025.17.1.7Ključne besede:
neto kapitalski tok, bruto kapitalski tok, Lucasov paradoks, problem alokacijePovzetek
Raziskave Lucasovega paradoksa in problema alokacije kapitala še niso dosegle soglasja glede tega, katero vrsto kapitala je treba uporabiti za proučevanje obsega in smeri kapitalskih tokov. Z nekaj izjemami se analiza Lucasovega paradoksa in problema alokacije večinoma opira na spremenljivke neto kapitalskih tokov, namesto na bruto kapitalske prilive in odlive. Pogoste nedoslednosti v zaključkih številnih študij je mogoče pripisati razlikam v izbiri spremenljivk in pomanjkanju natančne opredelitve uporabljenih spremenljivk v modelih.
Glavni cilj te študije je ugotoviti, katero merilo kapitalskih tokov je najprimernejše za empirično raziskovanje teh pojavov. Študija je bila izvedena na državah članicah EU in je preučevala stabilnost in procikličnost bruto prilivov in odlivov ter neto kapitalskih tokov.
Ugotovitve močno nakazujejo, da bi bilo treba v takšnih analizah uporabljati kategorije bruto kapitalskih tokov, medtem ko bi bilo treba tradicionalno zanašanje na spremenljivke neto kapitalskih tokov opustiti.
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